A brief introduction into our project

First things first, this is not another pitch for  show which condemns all human beings for emitting CO2 into the atmosphere and causing thee death of biodiversity as we know it. As we know climate change is a scientific observation and has replaces the archaic term "Global warming". It is our aim to try and introduce and educate people in the effects of sea level rise and the players who are devoted to providing aid and safety for all those at risk. However, it is important to understand the fundermentals in climate change and present both sides of the initial arguement and here are two contrasting articles and sources of information that portray different sides of the arguement: here is an article written which gives 100 reasons why Climate change is natural (http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/146138/146138) and here is a video campaign from a government source that is raising an awareness to lower emissions (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zzjOcOcQ90U).

Climate change and flooding, why should I care?

The answer is simple, because it is you who is going to be directly affected.

A very real threat

Severe flooding is a major issue posed to several countries with coastal regions. With sea levels rising 3.1mm from 1993 to 2003 and rates increasing sharply many low lying or exposed parts of the world, face a credible danger of being submerged permanently. This manmade issue poses the most harmful threat of global warming to our planet due to our booming population and declining resources, losing further land could lead to catastrophic social, economic and environmental issues.

Countries affected

·         Asia – Both Bangladesh and India have densely populated low lying land; these are most under threat to rising sea levels

·         Africa- Increasing drought will enhance food shortage 

·         Australia – Rising temperatures are leading to more frequent bush fires, the country could also lose land to the sea

·         Pacific and Indonesia – increased risk of tsunamis and storm surges, coastal-based communities faced with mass destruction.  Settlements such as Kiribati, Tuvalu and Marshall Islands are predicted to become submerged completely.

·         Europe – increased flooding due to higher rates of snow-cap melting, leading to increased river discharge resulting in flooding

·         Latin America – Increasing dry weather disrupting ecosystems and weather systems

·         North America – Threat of hurricanes now yearly, hurricane Katrina an example of how rising sea levels can result in more destructive storm surges

Effects on us

·       Loss of land leading to densely populated areas, lower quality of life

·       Less land for farming and plantations, further deforestation increasing CO2 emissions

·       Polluted fresh water, could lead to a disease outbreak

·       High rates of rural to urban migration, larger strain on resources and infrastructure

·       Increased storm surges and higher risk of tsunamis

·       Loss of SSSI sites and world heritage sites

·       Mass pollution in affected areas, climates change resulting in species being unable to adapt and dying, hugely disrupting food chains

·       Warmer oceans, marine ecosystems disrupted

·       Countries debt rises to unsustainable levels

Kyoto Protocol

The Kyoto protocol was a treaty adopted on 11 December 1997 in Kyoto Japan. The treaty was agreed during a world summit meeting. The objective of the Kyoto climate change conference was to establish a legally binding international agreement, whereby all the participating nations commit themselves to tackling the issue of global warming and greenhouse gas emissions. The target agreed upon was an average reduction of 5.2% from 1990 levels by the year 2012. The protocol has three mechanisms for each member to agree to.

The Kyoto mechanisms are:

•Emissions trading – known as “the carbon market" 

•Clean development mechanism (CDM)

•Joint implementation

As of August 2011, 191 states have signed and ratified the protocol, the only remaining high profile country to sign is the United States.

Conclusions

Over the last fifty years climate change and global warming have become hot topics. As the threat of climate change becomes increasingly real and evident.  As more and more natural disasters are, being labelled as effects of climate change it is clear strategies and action plans must be implemented. Programs like the Kyoto Protocol are effective but cannot reverse the damage already done. The question is can our planet overcome these adverse effects with an ever increasing population and declining resources.



The Netherlands response to climate change

Recent political decisions made

·        2005 – decided to ‘climate proof’ the country. 200 year plan

·        Two thirds of population live below sea level

·        December 2007 – increase of $20 billion on sea defence and water quality

·        $4 billion on flood/river defence

·        Previously $680 million was used on maintaining and improving the water defence system. The dutch have been doing it for over a millennium.

·        €100 per Dutchman.

The possible effects

·        Climate models show that more abrupt showers will occur in the Rhine catchment area – goes through Netherlands

·        Rise of 30 inches or around 2m in sea level in next 100 years

·        2m sea level rise with nothing done – Rotterdam, Alkmaar, Breda, Groningen under water.

·        5m “” – over half of Netherlands below water. Roosendaal. Bremen, Hamburg, Calais, Brugge.

·        9m – three quarters under water. Copenhagen, Aalborg, Antwerp, Portsmouth, Hull, Blackpool, Malmo, Helsingborg.

Strategies and why they were implemented

·        Recent strategies have been to pump sand into strategic offshore locations where the North Sea will create sand dunes and re-establishing minor waterways and channels.

·        However experts say these ideas will only work until a rise of 5ft in sea level

·        Long terms strategies have included altering the course of the Rhine to a more gradual slope towards the sea. Or creating ‘breaker islands’ as a defence against storm surges.

·        Once such surge occurred in 1953, where water levels rose over 13ft breaching the defences and killed over 1,800 people. 100000 evacuees

·        After hurricane Katrina the government also decided to re-think their plans for a worst case scenario in terms of evacuation.

The Delta Works

·        After the 1953 disaster the Netherlands started work on the Delta Works. It was started in 1958 and completed in 1997. One of the 7 modern wonders of the world.

·        Largest dam – Oosterscheldedam – hour and a half from Amsterdam. Situation in Zeeland. 3km long, has 65 pillars which can slide 62 flood gates, each weighing 300-500 tonnes. In addition to the road above, load bearing beams below and the hydraulic mechanisms.

·        Each pillar is 38 metres in height and 18000 tonnes in weight.

·        Also protects a nature reserve.

·        This particular dam was built to stop too many fresh water areas building up in the area. Reduce major flooding to once every 10,000 years from once every 4,000.

The next 5 maps that are on show will give you an idea of how vulnerable the Netherlands actually are. Here is a link to the satelite imaging system we used to display the affected areas of sea level rise in euorpe: http://geology.com/sea-level-rise/netherlands.shtml

Impacts of sea level rise to Bangladesh

Salinity intrusion

Water resources will suffer severely from sea level rise, as fresh water availability will be reduced by salinity intrusion.  In Bangladesh, particularly in the south, there are severe concerns over fresh water availability. The major rivers of Bangladesh (Padma and Jamuna) are mainly located in central and northern Bangaldesh. In the South, over abstraction of ground water is leading to water deficit, as there is not enough fresh water recharging the aquifers. To add further to the problem, not only is salinity intrusion restricting the amount of fresh water, but also arsenic pollution.

Fisheries and aquaculture

There are currently 124 shrimp processing plants in the coastal zone – there would be much less of these if salinity intrusion hadn’t occurred. Although salinity intrusion has led to loss of biodiversity and loss of fresh water, it has had a major social impact of creating jobs for a substantial amount of people who would otherwise be unemployed. A flood in South-West Bangladesh in 2000 caused damage and losses of at least US$500 million to crops, fish farmers, property and infrastructure. The shrimp sector was the most affected sector, losing shrimp fields of equivalent US$230 million.

So, although sea level rise is having a social and environmental positive impact (creating jobs and shrimp fields), it is still a regressive act as the shrimp fields and infrastructure is being lost because of sea level rise. A shrimp farmer expressed “I have lost up to 400 million taka (US$7.4 million) invested in 40 shrimp projects, maybe I will never be well off again”. The economic impact of shrimp destruction is not only at local level – it will destroy the prospective foreign exchange earning sector of Bangladesh nationally

Impacts on agriculture

Salinity intrusion due to sea level rise will decrease agricultural production by unavailability of water and soil degradation. Ali (2005) investigated the loss of rice production in a village of Satkhira district and found that rice production in 2006 had declined by 69% of that in the year 1985. In addition to this, there is a further decrease in rice production because of the practicing of shrimp cultivation in saline water. At this present time, sea level rise is only affecting agricultural production in coastal areas. However, if sea levels continue to rise, crops inland will start to be affected by sea level rise. A study by BARC (1999) concluded that salinisation will cause a reduction of wheat production equivalent to US$ 586.75 million. Such loss of food could lead to Bangladesh failing to obtain food security.

Sea level rise > saline intrusion > Decreased agriculture > Decreased GDP > Decreased food production > Food shortage > Health hazards (or even famine) > High poverty > Aid from other countries

As you can see from the above, there is a vicious domino effect of social, economic and environmental impacts that will be hard to get out of just because of sea level rise.

Landmass and settlement

·         Sea level rise of 0.1m will inundate 2,500km²

·         Sea level rise of 0.3m will inundate 8,000km²

·         Sea level rise of 1.0m will inundate 14,000km²

The potential land loss estimated by IPCC is even worse. It reports 29,864km² area of land will be lost and 14.8 million people will be landless by a 1m sea level rise. Bangladesh has a population pressure, with an estimated population of 158 million (July 2011). Land stress is already a problem. If vast areas of land, such as that predicted by the IPCC, is actually lost, then there will be not enough land to house 14.8 million people. Bangladesh could face a crisis of whereby they will start to suffer from environmental refugees. Will India accept them when they have the same problems as Bangladesh, and have many tensions between them (such as the Farakka Barrage). The geology of Bangladesh’s coastal area does not help matters either. They are formed of silt and sandy soils which make them vulnerable to sea level rise, as they are easily eroded. A study by Hutton and Haque (2003) observed that some people were displaced ten times during the period of 1981-1993 because of erosion on coastal areas. Such erosion not only caused social upheaval because people lost their homes multiple times, but also financial loss for the displaced people to build their new homes.

Tourism

A significant part of Bangladesh coast is sandy beaches that attract tourists. Five of Bangladesh’s tourists spots are located in the coastal zone. All the tourist facilities in the coastal zone will be affected by sea level rise directly or indirectly. The tourism sector of Kuakata will suffer most because all the facilities are very close to the coastline. However, all the other four areas are highly vulnerable in terms of sea level rise. 19% of foreigners visiting Bangladesh are tourists. At national level, the tourism industry serves the nation with economic development. At local level, it helps to strengthen local economy, culture and heritage. As mentioned previously, tourism will not just be affected directly (e.g. loss of buildings). People’s perception and the perceived threat of sea level rise is enough to force tourists to choose other holiday destinations.

Health

Sea level rise may increase the risk of health hazards like diarrhoea and cholera, which can be fatal. Vibrio cholerae is the causing microbe of cholera that survives longer with high salinity levels. For this reason, the coastal area is a breeding and nursery ground of the cholera disease. Outbreaks of cholera in Bangladesh often occur after flooding, because the water supply becomes contaminated with sea water. Thus, sea level rise, by increasing flood risk, increases the risk of cholera outbreak too. Increased unavailability of fresh water will force people to drink contaminated water leading to cholera, diarrhoea and other water born diseases. Again, increased salinity in the coastal zone will decrease food production in the area, casing malnutrition for the coastal people.

Ecosystem

The Sundarbans is the largest single block of tidal halophytic mangrove forest in the world. According to the World Bank (2000), the Sundarbans will be completely lost with 1 metre sea level rise. Loss of this means great loss of heritage, loss of biodiversity, loss of fisheries resources, loss of life and livelihood and after all loss of a very highly productive ecosystem. Its biodiversity is its key quality – it is the hotspot for vast amounts of flora and fauna. It is the last habitat of Royal Bengal Tiger. It has many other species all listed in the IUCN red book, such as the fishing eagle and the critically endangered River Terrapin. Sea level rise will also decrease the availability of light for corals, affecting photosynthesis. Decreased rates of photosynthesis will decrease the growth of corals, causing destruction of St. Martin’s island, the only highly productive coral island of the country.

Bangladesh Flood Management

The Flood Action Plan

The underlying principle is that it is quite impossible to stop Bangladesh flooding.  The aim, then, is to minimise the damage and maximise the benefits of the floodwaters and to ensure that the discharges of the three great rivers reach the Bay of Bengal with minimum harmful effect.

Flood management and mitigation strategies

Flood management strategies adopted in the country have continuously evolved over the last 50 years, in three distinct phases of their development, and with mixed experiences. Initially, the emphasis was on structural measures through the implementation of some large-scale flood control, drainage and irrigation (FCDI) projects. However, it was soon recognized that their implementation involved large investments, as well as longer duration for their completion. It was then opted for the construction of small and medium scale FCD projects so as to provide early benefits. Thereafter, it was realized that water resources development should not be focused only on agriculture but take also into account other sectors related to water resources utilization and development. Environmental protection also came to the fore. 

As a result, since the 1960’s about 628 large, medium and small-scale FCDI projects have been implemented; they comprise levees and embankments, drainage channel improvements, drainage structures, dams and barrages, pumping systems, etc. They have provided flood protection to about 5.37 million ha of land, which is about 35% of the total area.

Non-structural measures such as flood forecasting and warning were later incorporated, as it was felt that structural measures alone could not mitigate flood problems. The Flood Forecasting and

Warning System (FFWS), established in the 1970s, was modernized in 1996 and then again as of 2000. It now covers all the flood-prone areas of the country with 85 flood-monitoring stations, and provides real-time flood information and early warning with lead-times of 24 and 48 hours. The FFWS is currently assisting Government, disaster managers and the communities living in the flood prone areas in matters of flood preparedness, preparation of emergency mitigation plans, agricultural planning and rehabilitation, etc.  

In addition, more emphasis is now put on other non-structural means for flood mitigation, in particular by adopting a policy of involving communities in flood management, the stopping of encroachments on the flood plains through legislation controlling the developments in the flood plains and wetlands. In addition, a new concept is being introduced of controlled flooding as per desire of the stakeholders, instead of protecting some areas to make them completely flood-free. A pilot project was established in which flooding is allowed in each unit as decided by the stakeholders through consultation among themselves. 

Bangladesh 2004 flood responses

These are responses to a recent flood in Bangladesh showing how quickly they respond and how prepared they are when flooding occurs

Immediate Response (up to 2 weeks)

Rescue and evacuation, Water purification tablets; Oral saline; Food (rice, high-protein biscuits, grains, salt, pulses and vegetables);Medical supplies (for diarrhea, pneumonia, snake bites, sanitary towels);Non-food items (saris and lungis, cooking sets, candles and matches)Fodder; Tube well extensions.

Short Term Response (2 to 6 weeks)

Dry Food; Medical services; Tube well repair and rehabilitation.

Medium Term Response (6 weeks to 3 months)

Corrugated iron roof sheeting; Cash and other capital support; Seedlings (vegetables, pulses, paddy);

Fertilizer.

Long Term Response (3 to 6 months)

House building materials; Micro-credit; Awareness building; Embankment (re) construction; Flood Shelters;

Repair and rehabilitation of bridges and culverts; Road (re) construction; Rehabilitation of schools.

sources

http://www.apfm.info/pdf/case_studies/bangladesh.pdf

http://reliefweb.int/node/410666

Conclusion and How this project can translate into television

The different techniques of flood management that have been listed have all been developed to try and slow down and combat the effects of climate change and rising sea levels, but can they stop them. Many important questions have been raised in our project and the most ominous of all of them is; is there a way to protect vulnerable people in high risk flood planes and if the more scientifically and economically advanced countries are struggling to find ways in which  to combat flooding, then how are those who are on the other end of the spectrum going to cope?

As a final visual image we encourage everyone to visit the links and the sources we have provided to not only take our word for the extreme severity of the current situation we find ourselevs in but formulate your own opinion.